Will Dubai Property Prices Fall by 15%? Fitch Warns of a Correction

According to a recent publication by credit rating agency Fitch, property prices in Dubai could potentially fall by up to 15% from the second half of 2025 until 2026. This prediction comes after a period in which prices have risen by almost 60% since 2022.

Who is Fitch and why is this important?

Fitch is one of the three largest credit rating agencies in the world. Their publications influence how banks assess risk and the interest rates developers pay when borrowing money. If Fitch is critical, it can impact how easily real estate developers secure financing.

The cause: a surplus of homes

The primary reason for the expected price drop is oversupply. Over the past three years, more than 250,000 new homes have been announced. In 2026 alone, 120,000 homes are due for completion, which is four times more than in 2024. At the same time, the population is growing much more slowly, with an expected increase of just 5%.

What does this mean for buyers and investors?

Fitch expects that homes in the luxury segment will remain more stable, but that apartments in areas with high levels of speculation could see significant value depreciation. Rental incomes have also come under pressure, which could affect returns.

Key figures at a glance:

• Up to 15% price drop from late 2025
• 60% price increase since 2022
• 120,000 homes ready in 2026
• Supply growing by 16%, population by just 5%

Conclusion

The property market in Dubai has grown strongly, but according to Fitch, a correction is on the way. The large number of new homes combined with flattening demand is creating downward pressure on prices. Those looking to invest now would be well advised to thoroughly research the location, property type, and developer.