Why property sales in Dubai have fallen by 51%

Recent figures from the Dubai Land Department show that the number of real estate transactions in Dubai has fallen sharply. Between April and September 2025, 36,391 homes were sold, while this year over the same period there were only 17,757. That is a decline of 51%. Villas and townhouses in particular are traded less often: sales there fell by 71 percent. Apartments did slightly less badly with a decline of 39 percent. These figures relate to existing homes, but they say a lot about market sentiment.

At the same time, the rental market remains remarkably stable. The number of rental contracts remained virtually unchanged and the number of new rental contracts even rose by almost 10 percent. That indicates that many people who previously considered buying now first rent and wait. For anyone considering entering off-plan property in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, it is important to know these figures. They help you to have realistic expectations and not to blindly follow stories from brokers who mainly want to sell.

The sales figures in detail

The Dubai Land Department tracks all transactions and that data is public. It shows that in the period from April through September last year, 36,391 homes changed owners. In the same period this year, that was 17,757. That is a decline of 51 percent. You do not often see such a sharp decrease, certainly not after several years of strong growth. It is therefore logical that many people wonder what is going on.

The decline is not evenly distributed across the different housing types. For apartments, the number of sales fell by 39 percent. For villas and townhouses, the blow was much bigger: there were 71 percent fewer transactions registered. That difference may have to do with price levels, because villas are often more expensive and more sensitive to changes in buyer sentiment. Apartments remain a more accessible entry point for many people.

Remarkably, the rental market has barely changed. The total number of rental contracts remained virtually unchanged and the number of new rental contracts grew by almost 10 percent. That suggests that people are not leaving Dubai en masse, but they are postponing their purchase decision. They prefer to rent for another year and see how the market develops. For sellers this means less demand, but for landlords there remains sufficient interest.

Why buyers and sellers are cautious

On the buyer side, there is clear reluctance. Many potential buyers have seen prices rise sharply in recent years and wonder whether that pace is sustainable. They prefer to wait and see whether better deals come, for example in the form of a discount on the asking price. If they do not get that discount, they are more inclined to rent for another year. You see that attitude reflected in the rise in the number of new rental contracts.

On the seller side, something else is at play. Many owners are not willing to simply lower their asking price by 20 percent, even if they get fewer viewings. They believe the market will recover over time and are therefore willing to wait. That creates a stalemate: buyers want a discount, sellers do not want to let their price drop, and as a result less is concluded. Only when one of the two parties compromises does trading start again.

Beware of biased sales stories

In times of falling sales, it is harder for brokers to close deals. Some brokers may therefore be inclined to present the situation more positively than it is. Online you see many messages claiming that now is exactly the best time to buy, but the figures tell a different story. A broker only earns money when a transaction takes place, so their advice is not always objective.

Fortunately, the transaction data from the Dubai Land Department is accessible to everyone. There you can see exactly what is actually paid for comparable homes. Use that information to form your own judgment. Do not let yourself be rushed by stories that the market is about to explode again. Look at the facts and base your decision on them, not on what a seller wants you to believe.

What this means for off-plan buyers

The figures in this article relate to existing homes, but they also influence the market for new construction. If demand for existing homes decreases, that can also dampen interest in off-plan projects. Developers can respond by adjusting their prices or offering more attractive payment plans. For you as a buyer, that can actually create opportunities, but it remains important not to decide hastily.

Always compare multiple projects and look not only at the price but also at the developer's reputation and the quality of the location. Buying off-plan carries different risks than buying an existing home, such as delays in delivery or deviations in finishing. In a quieter market you may have more time to negotiate and secure better terms, but only if you are well informed.

A dip, not a crash

Despite the sharp decline in the number of transactions, there is no reason for panic. The property market in Dubai has more often experienced periods of fluctuation and the underlying demand for living in the city remains strong. The population is still growing and the business climate is attractive to foreign knowledge workers and entrepreneurs. The rental market that remains stable confirms that people still want to live in Dubai, only they are waiting a while before buying.

Anyone who decides to buy now is doing so in a quieter market with possibly more room to negotiate. But it is essential to keep your expectations realistic and to calculate with figures instead of promises. Dubai is not finished, as some say, but it is also not the golden mountain that others hold out. Use the public data, be patient and make a well-considered choice.