Dubai is in the midst of an enormous construction boom. Every year, tens of thousands of new homes are announced, often as so-called off-plan projects, which typically take an average of three years to complete. But is the population actually growing fast enough to fill all these new homes?
Explosion of Off-Plan Projects
Since 2022, a total of 263,000 new off-plan homes have been launched. In 2022, there were 44,000; in 2023, this number rose to 68,800; and in 2024, a new record was reached with 110,000 homes launched. By mid-2025, the count already stands at 40,200.
For context, a country with a population more than twice the size of Dubai’s completed only 68,995 new homes in 2024. In previous years, the number was slightly higher but still well below the annual requirement.
Population Growth in Dubai
Since 2022, Dubai’s population has grown by 429,000 people, which equates to approximately 4 percent growth per year. This means that for every home under construction, 1.6 people have been added.
The average number of people per household is lower in Dubai, primarily because many young single professionals are drawn to the city. An estimate of 1.8 persons per household seems more realistic here.
Supply and Demand
If 1.6 people are added per home under construction, and the average household size is 1.8, then on paper there appears to be sufficient demand. Nevertheless, the housing supply is growing faster than the population. If current construction and immigration trends continue, properties in less popular areas or from less reputable developers may struggle to find buyers or tenants.
Those who purchase a property in the right location, from a reputable developer, and at a competitive price are likely in a good position. However, properties of inferior quality or in unfavourable locations carry a higher risk.
How Does This Compare to Other Markets?
In a mature European market, for example, the population grew by approximately 103,000 people in 2024, primarily through immigration. At the same time, only 68,995 new homes were completed that year, a decrease of more than 6 percent compared to the previous year. This is considerably less than the annual target of 100,000 new homes.
Arithmetically, this equates to roughly 1.5 new residents per newly built home. This is slightly less favourable than in Dubai, where 1.6 new residents were added for every home. However, pressure on the housing market in that mature market is greater because supply has lagged behind demand for many years.
This comparison illustrates that Dubai may be building too much for its current population growth, while the other market is building too little to keep up with its population growth.
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