The Dubai real estate market is often presented with impressive statistics, but without context, these figures can give a distorted picture. Government data is real, but the details behind it make the difference between a realistic view of the market and a misjudgement.
An example is population growth. In 2024, 169,000 new residents were added, which sounds impressive. However, a large part of this group consists of low-wage workers such as drivers, hotel staff, and construction workers. They often live in shared accommodation and have no direct impact on purchasing power in the real estate market. Furthermore, there are many people with a Dubai visa who actually reside in more affordable areas such as Sharjah, where rental prices can be up to half as much.
Sales figures also require nuance. In the first quarter of 2025, AED 114 billion (approximately €28.5 billion) worth of real estate was sold. But only AED 60 billion (approximately €15 billion) concerned directly paid for, fully completed properties. The remaining AED 54 billion (approximately €13.5 billion) came from off-plan sales. In these transactions, often only 10% to 20% of the price is paid upon signing, while the full amount is recorded in the statistics. This means that an off-plan purchase of AED 10 million in reality only brings AED 1 to 2 million of new capital into the market at that moment.
Regarding prices: Dubai villas are now more expensive per m² than in many parts of Europe. Luxury apartments compete on price with those in London. The rapid price increases that followed the COVID period are not permanent. Global economic conditions are changing: house prices in London are falling, Europe is struggling with inflation, the Chinese economy is cooling, and the United States is becoming embroiled in trade tensions.
Expectations for the coming years
Dubai will continue to grow, but the pace is expected to moderate. An annual price increase of 15% as seen in recent years is unlikely. Buyers and investors would be well advised to focus on long-term value, rather than blindly trusting impressive headline figures.
The market remains attractive, but realism is more important than hype.
Edward Clarke is a seasoned property expert with extensive experience in international real estate investment, with a particular focus on Dubai’s fast-growing property market. Drawing on both personal investment experience and years of client advisory work, he helps investors make informed, realistic decisions when purchasing apartments, villas or off-plan developments in Dubai. With a pragmatic mindset, a sharp focus on returns and a strong commitment to transparency, Edward is a trusted point of contact for anyone considering a property investment in Dubai.
